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CrazyNinjaMike's Up By 3 Runs Devigger Assistant
Devigger Assistant:
Underdog/Favorite:
Away/Home:
BetPoints:
(The Total Runs Over/Under like: 8.5)
Devigger LegOdds:
(ie. Pinny's moneyline odds like: +180/-210)
Bet Odds:
(DK's moneyline odds like: +175)
Note: Choosing Underdog/Favorite and Away/Home is currently disabled for Up By 3 Runs. I'll be adding those Soon™.
Tables/Data:
This table shows the historical percentage of the time that a team got up by 3 runs when they lost. The data has been smoothed out to help the tail-ends that have less (or no) data.
Variables are:
Underdog/Favorite -> Underdogs have much better payouts, making them better for the promo, since the favorites are only slightly more likely (on average) to get up by 3 and lose.
Away/Home -> Away teams have a better chance to get up by 3
BetPoints -> Higher scoring games (higher over/unders) have a better chance for either team to get up by 3 at some point.
I used Killer Sports to estimate the percentages. See here for an example query: killersports.com
and killersports.com
That returns, in games with an over/under (total) between 7 and 8, that when our Away (A) Underdog (D) Loses (L) (ADL), 1471 times the team (t:) has gotten up by 3 (BL= Biggest Lead) at some point in the game. 13747 times they did not.
That's 15,218 total. 1471/13747 = 9.67% of the time the Away Underdog's losses were when they were actually leading by 3 at some point.
Away Underdog:
| Value |
Percentage |
| 0.5 |
0.00% |
| 1 |
0.00% |
| 1.5 |
0.00% |
| 2 |
0.00% |
| 2.5 |
0.00% |
| 3 |
0.60% |
| 3.5 |
1.51% |
| 4 |
2.41% |
| 4.5 |
3.32% |
| 5 |
4.23% |
| 5.5 |
5.13% |
| 6 |
6.04% |
| 6.5 |
6.94% |
| 7 |
7.85% |
| 7.5 |
8.75% |
| 8 |
9.66% |
| 8.5 |
10.56% |
| 9 |
11.47% |
| 9.5 |
12.38% |
| 10 |
13.28% |
| 10.5 |
14.19% |
| 11 |
15.09% |
| 11.5 |
16.00% |
| 12 |
16.90% |
| 12.5 |
17.81% |
| 13 |
18.71% |
| 13.5 |
19.62% |
| 14 |
20.53% |
| 14.5 |
21.43% |
| 15 |
22.34% |
| 15.5 |
23.24% |
| 16 |
24.15% |
| 16.5 |
25.05% |
| 17 |
25.96% |
| 17.5 |
26.86% |
| 18 |
27.77% |
| 18.5 |
28.68% |
| 19 |
29.58% |
| 19.5 |
30.49% |