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CrazyNinjaMike's Up By X Points NFL Devigger Assistant
Devigger Assistant:
Underdog/Favorite:
UpByX #:
(Like Up By "7" and win your bet)
Devigger LegOdds:
(ie. Pinny's moneyline odds like: +180/-210)
Bet Odds:
(DK's moneyline odds like: +175)
Tables/Data:
This table shows the historical percentage of the time that a team got up by X points when they lost.
Variables are:
-
Underdog/Favorite - Underdogs have much better payouts, making them better for the promo, since the favorites are only slightly more likely (on average) to get up by X and lose.
- UpByX# - Measures the likelihood that an underdog, which eventually loses the game, had been leading by a specified number of points at any moment during the game. The higher the UpByX#, the less likely it is for a team that loses to have achieved such a lead during the match. Significant threshold effects are observed at critical leads, particularly at points such as 4, 8, 11, and 15. For instance, of the games underdogs lost, they had been up by 3 points in 52.36% of those cases, but this probability drops markedly to 38.44% for a 4-point lead. Similar notable drops occur at 8 points (from 28.67% to 13.95%), 11 points (from 12.57% to 7.84%) and 15 points (from 5.14% to 2.36%), indicating these are key thresholds where the chances of an underdog having held a lead during a loss decrease significantly.
I used Killer Sports to estimate the percentages. See here for an example query: killersports.com
and killersports.com
That returns, in games that when our Underdog (D) Loses (L) (DL), 1188 times the team (t:) has gotten up by 7 (BL= Biggest Lead) at some point in the game. 2956 times they did not.
That's 4,144 total. 1188/4144 = 28.67% of the time the Underdog's losses were when they were actually leading by 7 at some point.
The "and (points +o:points !=t:BL)" portion corrects a bug on killersports that returns false positives.
Underdog:
| UpByX# |
Percentage |
| 1 |
55.57% |
| 2 |
53.16% |
| 3 |
52.36% |
| 4 |
38.44% |
| 5 |
32.79% |
| 6 |
32.05% |
| 7 |
28.67% |
| 8 |
13.95% |
| 9 |
13.08% |
| 10 |
12.57% |
| 11 |
7.84% |
| 12 |
6.27% |
| 13 |
6.06% |
| 14 |
5.14% |
| 15 |
2.36% |
| 16 |
2.10% |
| 17 |
1.88% |
| 18 |
1.04% |
| 19 |
0.82% |
| 20 |
0.75% |
| 21 |
0.60% |
| 22 |
0.17% |
| 23 |
0.14% |
| 24 |
0.14% |
| 25 |
0.07% |
| 26 |
0.05% |
| 27 |
0.05% |
| 28 |
0.05% |
| 29 |
0.02% |
| 30 |
0.02% |
| 31 |
0.02% |
| 32 |
0.02% |
| 33 |
0.02% |
Favorite:
| UpByX# |
Percentage |
| 1 |
65.77% |
| 2 |
62.79% |
| 3 |
61.74% |
| 4 |
47.71% |
| 5 |
41.00% |
| 6 |
40.30% |
| 7 |
36.87% |
| 8 |
17.81% |
| 9 |
16.62% |
| 10 |
15.42% |
| 11 |
9.75% |
| 12 |
7.86% |
| 13 |
7.16% |
| 14 |
5.42% |
| 15 |
2.94% |
| 16 |
2.64% |
| 17 |
2.44% |
| 18 |
1.24% |
| 19 |
0.85% |
| 20 |
0.85% |
| 21 |
0.70% |
| 22 |
0.25% |
| 23 |
0.25% |
| 24 |
0.20% |
| 25 |
0.05% |
| 26 |
0.05% |
| 27 |
0.05% |
| 28 |
0.00% |
| 29 |
0.00% |
| 30 |
0.00% |
| 31 |
0.00% |
| 32 |
0.00% |
| 33 |
0.00% |