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CrazyNinjaMike's Up By X NFL Promo Simulator


This Simulator uses NFL data from 2007-2021. The data only sees the end of quarter/game scores and so the results are conservative as the simulation cannot detect when Team A gets up by X during a quarter, but Team B closes the quarter with the gap covered.

When hedge is mentioned below. It assumes you bet for Team A to win on DK and for Team B to win on another book. You need Team A to get up by X points and for Team B to come back and win to middle/cash.

How to quickly find the lowest holds:
  1. Go to https://crazyninjaodds.com/site/tools/low-hold.aspx and set the filters to find the best Odds to hedge against DraftKings for a given game.
    (I will be adding a page to view games/markets in the future to make this easier to compare odds)
  2. Manually
Play around with the tool and have fun :) - Feel free to ask questions in my CNM Discord

- CrazyNinjaMike


(Optional) Only look at historical games in which Pinnacle's:
Underdog Odds Were Between: and  (ie. between +200 and +300)
Favorite Odds Were Between:  and  (ie. between -200 and -300)
Tip for above: If Pinnacle's Underdog Odds are +300, try limiting the sim between +290 and +310.
Advanced Tip for above (optional):  If you temporarily set DK Odds textbox as Pinnacle's Odds, then the Result's "no-hedge's Historical Profit/Game" should be close in value to "Your +EV$". If it isn't, then you should adjust the range above to get them to be close to each other in value using Pinnacle's Odds. After you finish calibrating the above, you can then set "DK's odds Textbox" as DK's actual odds and perform your actual simulation.

Up By X =  (ie. 7 or 10)

DK Max Wager =  (ie. $50 or $250 or $500)

DK Odds =  (ie. +300 or -150)
Low-Hold Hedge/Middle Odds =  (Optional, however, if provided, both +EV and hedge/middle will be simulated)

(Optional) Kelly:
Kelly Multiplier:
Kelly Bankroll:  (Setting Kelly will help you responsibly ride part of the promo naked and hedge the rest)

 Note (9/27/2022): Fixed a bug. The Underdog and Favorite Upper Limit textboxes weren't doing anything. They now work correctly.


Note: I simply calculate +EV% as your +EV$ / DKWager in order to better compare the % between no hedge plays and hedge plays.
If I calculted hedge's +EV% as +EV$ / (DKWager+HedgeWager), it would not compare well to the no hedge play.